MTG - Pioneer Metagame 1 May 2024
Today, I'm taking a look at the MtG Pioneer metagame of the past two weeks. Thunder Junction just released and some new cards have already made a big splash.
# Start Your Pioneer Journey Today!
You want to start playing Pioneer, but do not know where to start? I got you covered. The magic the gathering club KSVZ (Kartenspielverein Zürich) organizes a pioneer tournament every week (wednesday 19:00) at GZ Affoltern. I am participating most of the time and hope to see you there soon! When TwoMoons opens their doors we are playing there in Stettbach. For more information visit KSVZ Homepage.
The top decks in Pioneer right now
| # | Archetype | Play Rate% | Win Rate% | [Lower, Upper] | # Matches | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slickshot Show-Off | 13.99 | 52.43 | [49.21%, 55.63%] | 925 | Deck |
| 2 | Rakdos Vampires | 13.03 | 52.09 | [48.75%, 55.42%] | 860 | Deck |
| 3 | Izzet Phoenix | 12.39 | 48.4 | [44.98%, 51.84%] | 812 | Deck |
| 4 | Bring to Light | 9.11 | 51.99 | [48.0%, 55.96%] | 602 | Deck |
| 5 | Waste Not | 8.15 | 51.26 | [47.11%, 55.39%] | 556 | Deck |
| 6 | Lotus Field | 7.11 | 46.52 | [41.79%, 51.32%] | 417 | Deck |
| 7 | Amalia Combo | 6.0 | 51.13 | [46.23%, 56.02%] | 397 | Deck |
| 8 | Ensoul Artifact | 4.16 | 49.15 | [43.5%, 54.83%] | 295 | Deck |
| 9 | UW Control | 3.84 | 48.33 | [42.09%, 54.63%] | 240 | Deck |
| 10 | Spirits | 2.72 | 56.5 | [49.94%, 62.84%] | 223 | Deck |
| 11 | Quintorius Combo | 2.32 | 47.66 | [39.2%, 56.25%] | 128 | Deck |
| 12 | Humans | 2.0 | 53.33 | [44.94%, 61.54%] | 135 | Deck |
| 13 | Rakdos Legacy | 1.44 | 39.56 | [30.13%, 49.83%] | 91 | Deck |
| 14 | UB Control | 1.28 | 50.0 | [39.17%, 60.83%] | 78 | Deck |
| 15 | Transmogrify | 1.2 | 56.34 | [44.77%, 67.25%] | 71 | Deck |
Reading Example
Slickshot Show-Off is the archetype with the highest play rate: 13.99% of all decks registered in the last 14 days were of this archetype. The average win rate of this deck was 52.43%. We are 95% certain that the true win rate of this archetype is between 49.21% and 55.63%. The number of matches that are included in this analysis is 925. Note that some columns, like the confidence interval, are missing on mobile screens.
The Metagame
The most played archetype, Slickshot Show-Off, consists of various decks that all play the name-giving card "Slickshot Show-Off". Rakdos Vampires and Izzet Phoenix are both still the two most played decks, however the metagame-share of "Bring to Light", "Waste Not" and "Lotus Field" is catching up.
This shift is actually quite dramatic. Last month, Rakdos Vampires still had a metagame share of 22.5% (now down to 13%) and Izzet Phoenix had a metagame share of 16.5% (now down to 12.39%). Notably, Boros Heroic disappeared from the list, as it now plays Slickshot Show-Off. Enigmatic Fires has also disappeared from the top 15 most-played decks.
Archetype Breakdown: Slickshot Show-Off
Slickshot Show-Off is strong enough to spawn a whole set of different deck types. Let's investigate what they play and if it pays off for them.
The Gruul build is a bit less explosive than the Wizards and Boros builds, but it can play the very strong Questing Druid and has access to Blossoming Defense and Pick Your Poison. I expect those cards to make the Rakdos Vampires matchup quite a bit better.
Interestingly, the Gruul build has the lowest Win Rate of the three distinct Show-Off decks. I think this is because both Boros and the Wizard build can be a bit faster, and that is a big help against some of the popular decks. Especially the decks right below Vampires and Phoenix, Bring to Light, Waste Not and Lotus Field, have a hard time dealing with those extremely fast clocks.
Wizard Builds
The wizard builds play wizards for Wizard's Lightning. Most builds are just mono red, but others splash White for Clever Lumimancer and Boros Charm. This build is the one that is still changing the most in my opionion. There are so many flex slots, and it is unclear which configuration is the best. I will watch what the Wizard Show-Off decks play in the coming weeks in the tournament results with great interest.
I saw Izzet lists running Stormchaser Mage and Sleight of Hand, Boros lists running Clever Lumimancer or Mono Red lists using Viashino Pyromancer and a full playset of Kari Zev's Expertise.
Boros Builds
Those builds are essentially the old Boros Heroic lists, that now add Slickshot Show-Offs. They protect their creatures with Gods Willing and Loran's Escape.
But even here, people are experimenting with some lists running Dreadhorde Arcanist + Escape Velocity.
Izzet Phoenix
Finally, some phoenix players opted to just include 3 or more Slickshot Show-Offs in their sideboard. I assume the plan is to replace the Arclight Phoenixes with Slickshot Show-Offs post-sideboard, for some matchups. Of course, if heavy graveyard hate is expected, then this sideboard plan can be a nasty surprise for an opponent that opens with a Leyline of the Void.
Data Source
All data comes from the published MTGO decklists available at MTGO Decklists.
Every pioneer tournament that has been played in the last 14 days is included. Results from leagues have not been included.
The data was collected using software I wrote. It is freely available on GitHub.